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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1492

Elo1473

Tim MeansvsAndre FialhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Saturday, September 23, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:15

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsAndre Fialho: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Andre Fialho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Andre Fialho

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-166

(62%)

1492

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 22

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Andre FialhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · Apr 22

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22

KOvs Jake Matthews · Jun 22

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricAndre Fialho

5.04

Strikes / min

3.30

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

6.26

60%

Strike defense

45%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.25

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 4.35 — meaningful gap-2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansAndre Fialho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Andre Fialho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetAndre Fialho

By target zone

64% acc · 63%

Head

43% acc · 63%

94% acc · 32%

Body

65% acc · 29%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 8%

By position

64% acc · 54%

Distance

41% acc · 69%

86% acc · 29%

Clinch

94% acc · 31%

86% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Andre Fialho rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control1:22

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control1:29

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 143

Sig Strikes

51 / 103

74%

Sig Str %

49.3%

134 / 178

Total Strikes

56 / 110

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andre Fialho	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0
1	Tim Means	39 / 53	44 / 58	0 / 1
2	Andre Fialho	29 / 50	32 / 54	1 / 1
2	Tim Means	48 / 69	73 / 99	0 / 1
3	Andre Fialho	3 / 6	5 / 9	0 / 0
3	Tim Means	17 / 21	17 / 21	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Andre Fialho

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7