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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1478

Tim MeansvsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:09

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

+184

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1492

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 22

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricAlex Morono

5.04

Strikes / min

4.90

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

60%

Strike defense

55%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.32

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.1|Blue -14.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

31% acc · 40%

Head

34% acc · 88%

62% acc · 45%

Body

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 75%

Distance

36% acc · 94%

77% acc · 25%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:27

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control0:19

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 87

Sig Strikes

33 / 92

42%

Sig Str %

37.5%

45 / 92

Total Strikes

42 / 102

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Morono	18 / 58	27 / 68	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Means	32 / 64	34 / 66	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Morono	15 / 34	15 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Tim Means	8 / 23	11 / 26	2 / 2	0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23