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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1368

Tim MeansvsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Garcia wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Garcia at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1492

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Alex GarciaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 16

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricAlex Garcia

5.04

Strikes / min

1.81

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

60%

Strike defense

59%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

3.72

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.61 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.3|Blue -123.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -71.0|Blue +71.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

24% acc · 48%

Head

19% acc · 81%

68% acc · 41%

Body

45% acc · 16%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

36% acc · 98%

Distance

21% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 174

Sig Strikes

32 / 151

36.3%

Sig Str %

21%

76 / 186

Total Strikes

32 / 151

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Garcia	13 / 48	13 / 48	0 / 2
1	Tim Means	22 / 54	34 / 66	0 / 0
2	Alex Garcia	9 / 48	9 / 48	0 / 1
2	Tim Means	19 / 58	19 / 58	0 / 0
3	Alex Garcia	10 / 55	10 / 55	0 / 2
3	Tim Means	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10