Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1359

Elo1382

Tim KennedyvsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:58

Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +123 American odds

+$123 profit

$223 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Tim Kennedy has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoel Romero (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Kennedy

Red Corner

Yoel Romero

Blue Corner

-133

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+123

(45%)

1359

Elo

1382

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Kennedy

oldest →

vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16

latest

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim KennedyMetricYoel Romero

2.78

Strikes / min

3.44

1.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

62%

Strike defense

60%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.57

70%

Takedown defense

78%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim KennedyYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.9|Blue +22.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim KennedyTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

29% acc · 57%

Head

45% acc · 72%

43% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 8%

57% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 21%

By position

30% acc · 70%

Distance

43% acc · 64%

60% acc · 30%

Clinch

63% acc · 13%

Ground

64% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Kennedy rounds

even

Yoel Romero rounds

Round 1Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Tim Kennedy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 86

Sig Strikes

39 / 80

52.3%

Sig Str %

50.7%

32 / 88

Total Strikes

51 / 93

0 / 6

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yoel Romero	12 / 20	14 / 22	2 / 2	0
1	Tim Kennedy	4 / 28	4 / 28	0 / 2	0
2	Yoel Romero	9 / 32	12 / 36	1 / 2	0
2	Tim Kennedy	25 / 57	27 / 59	0 / 2	1
3	Yoel Romero	18 / 28	25 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Tim Kennedy	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 2	0

Tim Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13