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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Kennedy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1490

Tim KennedyvsRoger GracieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Kennedy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsRoger Gracie: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Roger Gracie wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Tim Kennedy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roger Gracie at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roger Gracie has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Kennedy

Red Corner

Roger Gracie

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1359

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim KennedyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14

KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16

latest

Roger GracieNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim KennedyMetricRoger Gracie

2.78

Strikes / min

1.78

1.84

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

62%

Strike defense

61%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.87

70%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking-0.01

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Roger Gracie(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.5|Blue +131.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim KennedyTargetRoger Gracie

By target zone

43% acc · 39%

Head

36% acc · 67%

77% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 25%

77% acc · 43%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 46%

Distance

23% acc · 42%

90% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

65% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Kennedy rounds

even

Roger Gracie rounds

Round 1Roger Gracie edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:47

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 2Tim Kennedy edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control3:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Tim Kennedy edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:37

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 92

Sig Strikes

12 / 29

53.7%

Sig Str %

43%

101 / 145

Total Strikes

14 / 31

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 4

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:11

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roger Gracie	7 / 10	8 / 11	2 / 2
1	Tim Kennedy	5 / 15	20 / 32	0 / 1
2	Roger Gracie	4 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 0
2	Tim Kennedy	26 / 36	44 / 56	2 / 2
3	Roger Gracie	1 / 11	1 / 11	0 / 2
3	Tim Kennedy	23 / 41	37 / 57	0 / 1

Tim Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Roger Gracie

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights1