Middleweight

5 Rounds

Tim Kennedy won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1359

Elo1361

Tim KennedyvsRafael NatalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Wednesday, November 6, 2013Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Tim Kennedy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:40

Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsRafael Natal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tim Kennedy wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Tim Kennedy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Kennedy at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Kennedy

Red Corner

Rafael Natal

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1359

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim KennedyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14

KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16

latest

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim KennedyMetricRafael Natal

2.78

Strikes / min

3.10

1.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

62%

Strike defense

57%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

2.55

70%

Takedown defense

77%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim KennedyRafael Natal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +60.0|Blue -60.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim KennedyTargetRafael Natal

By target zone

29% acc · 54%

Head

24% acc · 38%

50% acc · 8%

Body

33% acc · 15%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

75% acc · 46%

By position

33% acc · 69%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Kennedy rounds

even

Rafael Natal rounds

Round 1Tim Kennedy edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 31

Sig Strikes

13 / 35

41%

Sig Str %

37%

13 / 31

Total Strikes

13 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Natal	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 1	0
1	Tim Kennedy	13 / 31	13 / 31	0 / 0	0

Tim Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16