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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1359

Elo1492

Tim KennedyvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:45

Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Kennedy

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1359

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Kennedy

oldest →

vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14

KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim KennedyMetricKelvin Gastelum

2.78

Strikes / min

3.65

1.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

62%

Strike defense

57%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.04

70%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim KennedyKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.9|Blue +132.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +651.0|Blue -651.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim KennedyTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

54% acc · 79%

52% acc · 36%

Body

71% acc · 19%

88% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

32% acc · 62%

Distance

55% acc · 90%

80% acc · 36%

Clinch

63% acc · 8%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Kennedy rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Tim Kennedy edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control2:48

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:04

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 108

Sig Strikes

62 / 110

38.7%

Sig Str %

54.7%

51 / 115

Total Strikes

68 / 116

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

27.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:52

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0
1	Tim Kennedy	27 / 47	30 / 50	2 / 4
2	Kelvin Gastelum	21 / 41	24 / 44	0 / 0
2	Tim Kennedy	9 / 29	12 / 33	1 / 3
3	Kelvin Gastelum	29 / 43	32 / 46	0 / 0
3	Tim Kennedy	9 / 32	9 / 32	0 / 1

Tim Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24