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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tim Johnson won · Decision R3
Elo1491
Elo1495
Marcin Tybura

Tim JohnsonvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Tim Johnson won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Johnson wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Tim Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Johnson at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Tim Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Tybura
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1491
Elo
1495
31
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Johnson
oldest →
L
DECvs Jared Rosholt · Aug 15
L
DECvs Alexander Volkov · Nov 16
W
DECvs Daniel Omielanczuk · Mar 17
L
KOvs Junior Albini · Jul 17
W
DECvs Marcelo Golm · Feb 18
latest
Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24
W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24
W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25
L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25
L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim JohnsonMetricMarcin Tybura
—
Strikes / min
3.56
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
—
Strike defense
55%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.30
—
Takedown defense
70%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes24.0 vs —Takedowns2.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Tim JohnsonMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Tim Johnson(7 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.5|Blue +4.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tim Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24