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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tim Johnson won · Decision R3
Elo1491
Elo1372

Tim JohnsonvsMarcelo GolmUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Tim Johnson won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marcelo Golm wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Tim Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcelo Golm at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Tim Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Marcelo Golm
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1491
Elo
1372
32
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Johnson
oldest →
L
DECvs Jared Rosholt · Aug 15
W
DECvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 16
L
DECvs Alexander Volkov · Nov 16
W
DECvs Daniel Omielanczuk · Mar 17
L
KOvs Junior Albini · Jul 17
latest
Marcelo GolmL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Christian Colombo · Oct 17
L
vs Arjan Bhullar · Oct 18
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim JohnsonMetricMarcelo Golm
—
Strikes / min
4.27
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
—
Strike defense
45%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.45
—
Takedown defense
87%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1513Strikes34.5 vs 35.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-0.3 vs 1.0
Tim JohnsonMarcelo Golm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tim Johnson(7 fights)Marcelo Golm(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +118.8|Blue -118.8
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tim Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Marcelo Golm

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4