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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1513

Tim ElliottvsTagir UlanbekovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsTagir Ulanbekov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tagir Ulanbekov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Tagir Ulanbekov

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1500

Elo

1513

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricTagir Ulanbekov

3.51

Strikes / min

3.01

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

56%

Strike defense

50%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

2.73

59%

Takedown defense

63%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottTagir Ulanbekov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.9|Blue +12.9

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetTagir Ulanbekov

By target zone

27% acc · 38%

Head

43% acc · 78%

58% acc · 19%

Body

79% acc · 17%

85% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 81%

Distance

41% acc · 72%

79% acc · 19%

Clinch

88% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns3

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:21

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 3Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 179

Sig Strikes

90 / 186

43.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

117 / 227

Total Strikes

111 / 212

3 / 9

TDs

2 / 10

30%

TD %

23.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

4:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	38 / 78	38 / 78	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Elliott	36 / 82	44 / 94	3 / 5	0
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	21 / 45	26 / 50	1 / 7	0
2	Tim Elliott	23 / 52	44 / 76	0 / 4	0
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	31 / 63	47 / 84	1 / 3	1
3	Tim Elliott	20 / 45	29 / 57	0 / 0	0

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8