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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tim Elliott won · SUB R1
Elo1500
Tim Elliott
Elo1522

Tim ElliottvsSumudaerjiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:02

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsSumudaerji: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sumudaerji has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Sumudaerji
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+136
(42%)
1500
Elo
1522
39
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott
oldest →
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25
L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26
latest
Sumudaerji
oldest →
L
vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24
W
vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25
W
vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25
W
vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26
L
vs Alex Perez · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricSumudaerji
3.51
Strikes / min
4.43
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.35
56%
Strike defense
62%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
0.67
59%
Takedown defense
72%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1489 vs 1484Strikes3.4 vs 4.6Takedowns3.7 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.60Form-0.1 vs -1.0
Tim ElliottSumudaerji

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Sumudaerji(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -21.5|Blue +21.5
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -462.0|Blue +462.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetSumudaerji

By target zone

6
46% acc · 60%
Head
6
32% acc · 60%
0
0% acc
Body
3
75% acc · 30%
4
57% acc · 40%
Leg
1
50% acc · 10%

By position

8
44% acc · 80%
Distance
10
40% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tim Elliott rounds
0
even
0
Sumudaerji rounds
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:05
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 21
Sig Strikes
10 / 25
47%
Sig Str %
40%
26 / 37
Total Strikes
10 / 25
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sumudaerji10 / 2510 / 250 / 00
1Tim Elliott10 / 2126 / 371 / 31

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8