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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Steve Erceg won · Decision R3
Elo1500
Tim Elliott
Elo1498
Steve Erceg editorial illustration

Tim ElliottvsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia

Official fight result

Steve Erceg won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Steve Erceg
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1500
Elo
1498
39
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim ElliottW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25
latest
Steve Erceg
oldest →
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24
L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25
W
vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25
L
KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricSteve Erceg
3.51
Strikes / min
4.64
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
56%
Strike defense
55%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
1.13
59%
Takedown defense
67%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights9