Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Tim Elliott has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
- Muhammad Mokaev has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim Elliott
oldest →W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26 Muhammad MokaevW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22W
SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22W
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim ElliottMetricMuhammad Mokaev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim ElliottMuhammad Mokaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -27.5|Blue +27.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim ElliottTargetMuhammad Mokaev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control1:40
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:36Control
Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:56Control
Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:43
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:52Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
