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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · SUB R2

Elo1500

Elo1385

Tim ElliottvsMark De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:41

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark De La Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mark De La Rosa threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Tim Elliott has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Mark De La Rosa

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1500

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Mark De La RosaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18

vs Alex Perez · Mar 19

vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricMark De La Rosa

3.51

Strikes / min

3.13

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.00

56%

Strike defense

48%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

0.54

59%

Takedown defense

40%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottMark De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +115.1|Blue -115.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -46.5|Blue +46.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetMark De La Rosa

By target zone

56% acc · 83%

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 100%

25% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

17% acc · 8%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

Clinch

61% acc · 92%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Mark De La Rosa rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:13

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 24

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

44%

Sig Str %

50%

54 / 75

Total Strikes

4 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:34

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark De La Rosa	2 / 4	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Elliott	10 / 18	47 / 61	1 / 1	1
2	Mark De La Rosa	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
2	Tim Elliott	2 / 6	7 / 14	0 / 0	1

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7