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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tim Elliott won · SUB R2
Elo1500
Tim Elliott
Elo1504

Tim ElliottvsKai AsakuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:39

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at +265 American odds

+$265 profit

$365 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Kai Asakura
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1500
Elo
1504
39
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott
oldest →
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23
L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26
latest
Kai Asakura
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 24
W
KOvs Cameron Smotherman · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricKai Asakura
3.51
Strikes / min
2.27
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
56%
Strike defense
52%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
50%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1505 vs 1490Strikes3.4 vs 2.3Takedowns3.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs -0.9
Tim ElliottKai Asakura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Kai Asakura(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.9|Blue +3.9
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red +364.0|Blue -364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetKai Asakura

By target zone

18
42% acc · 67%
Head
17
22% acc · 81%
2
11% acc · 7%
Body
3
43% acc · 14%
7
70% acc · 26%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

26
38% acc · 96%
Distance
21
24% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 4%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Tim Elliott rounds
0
even
0
Kai Asakura rounds
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:49
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:05
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
27 / 71
Sig Strikes
21 / 87
37.5%
Sig Str %
23.5%
42 / 88
Total Strikes
38 / 104
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:54
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kai Asakura11 / 4520 / 540 / 00
1Tim Elliott16 / 4024 / 501 / 10
2Kai Asakura10 / 4218 / 500 / 00
2Tim Elliott11 / 3118 / 381 / 22

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21

Kai Asakura

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4