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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · U-DEC

Elo1500

Elo1397

Tim ElliottvsJordan EspinosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

U-DEC

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsJordan Espinosa: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Jordan Espinosa

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1500

Elo

1397

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Jordan Espinosa

oldest →

vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Aug 19

SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20

vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20

vs David Dvorak · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricJordan Espinosa

3.51

Strikes / min

4.22

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

56%

Strike defense

57%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

0.75

59%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottJordan Espinosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.2|Blue -103.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +66.0|Blue -66.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetJordan Espinosa

By target zone

52% acc · 56%

Head

39% acc · 54%

71% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 31%

33% acc · 4%

Leg

67% acc · 15%

By position

24% acc · 16%

Distance

40% acc · 46%

67% acc · 24%

Clinch

80% acc · 31%

83% acc · 60%

Ground

60% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Jordan Espinosa rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:57

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:35

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 44

Sig Strikes

13 / 25

57.3%

Sig Str %

47%

91 / 120

Total Strikes

22 / 35

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jordan Espinosa	7 / 13	9 / 15	0 / 0
1	Tim Elliott	6 / 14	23 / 33	1 / 3
2	Jordan Espinosa	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0
2	Tim Elliott	7 / 10	24 / 32	2 / 2
3	Jordan Espinosa	5 / 9	11 / 16	0 / 0
3	Tim Elliott	12 / 20	44 / 55	1 / 2

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6