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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · SUB R2

Elo1500

Elo1511

Tim ElliottvsBrandon RoyvalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:18

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsBrandon Royval: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Tim Elliott has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Brandon Royval

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1500

Elo

1511

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricBrandon Royval

3.51

Strikes / min

5.54

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

56%

Strike defense

43%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

0.65

59%

Takedown defense

45%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottBrandon Royval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Brandon Royval(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.5|Blue +10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetBrandon Royval

By target zone

33% acc · 35%

Head

35% acc · 56%

60% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 25%

89% acc · 47%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

46% acc · 65%

Distance

41% acc · 75%

60% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Brandon Royval rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control3:08

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:53

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 32

Sig Strikes

16 / 33

50.5%

Sig Str %

46%

40 / 55

Total Strikes

22 / 41

4 / 10

TDs

1 / 1

43.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:01

Ctrl Time

2:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Royval	12 / 18	13 / 19	1 / 1	1
1	Tim Elliott	12 / 19	30 / 37	3 / 8	0
2	Brandon Royval	4 / 15	9 / 22	0 / 0	1
2	Tim Elliott	5 / 13	10 / 18	1 / 2	0

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13