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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Nguyen won · SUB R1

Elo1500

Elo1369

Tim ElliottvsBen NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Ben Nguyen won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:49

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsBen Nguyen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Ben Nguyen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Nguyen threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Ben Nguyen

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1500

Elo

1369

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Ben NguyenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15

KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16

vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18

vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricBen Nguyen

3.51

Strikes / min

3.51

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

56%

Strike defense

59%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

0.25

59%

Takedown defense

63%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottBen Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.0|Blue -131.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetBen Nguyen

By target zone

0% acc

Head

43% acc · 100%

Body

50% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Ben Nguyen rounds

Round 1Ben Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 4

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

25%

Sig Str %

42%

1 / 4

Total Strikes

8 / 12

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Nguyen	3 / 7	8 / 12	1 / 1	1
1	Tim Elliott	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 2	0

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7