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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Askar Askarov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1495

Tim ElliottvsAskar AskarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Askar Askarov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsAskar Askarov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Askar Askarov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Askar Askarov

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1500

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Askar Askarov

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 20

vs Joseph Benavidez · Mar 21

vs Kai Kara-France · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricAskar Askarov

3.51

Strikes / min

3.05

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

56%

Strike defense

57%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

2.60

59%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottAskar Askarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Askar Askarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetAskar Askarov

By target zone

22% acc · 32%

Head

44% acc · 78%

75% acc · 38%

Body

80% acc · 5%

70% acc · 30%

Leg

86% acc · 16%

By position

39% acc · 74%

Distance

45% acc · 78%

57% acc · 26%

Clinch

89% acc · 11%

Ground

57% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Askar Askarov rounds

Round 1Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control1:54

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:08

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 111

Sig Strikes

73 / 150

48%

Sig Str %

50%

86 / 157

Total Strikes

96 / 173

3 / 11

TDs

0 / 7

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

4:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Askar Askarov	17 / 34	32 / 49	0 / 0
1	Tim Elliott	11 / 16	25 / 34	0 / 2
2	Askar Askarov	20 / 36	25 / 41	0 / 3
2	Tim Elliott	9 / 23	26 / 42	3 / 6
3	Askar Askarov	36 / 80	39 / 83	0 / 4
3	Tim Elliott	27 / 72	35 / 81	0 / 3

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Askar Askarov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4