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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ali Bagautinov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1491

Tim ElliottvsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ali Bagautinov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsAli Bagautinov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Ali Bagautinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Ali Bagautinov

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1500

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Ali Bagautinov

oldest →

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14

vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15

vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricAli Bagautinov

3.51

Strikes / min

2.85

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

56%

Strike defense

52%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

2.51

59%

Takedown defense

65%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.4|Blue -9.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

22% acc · 58%

Head

25% acc · 79%

45% acc · 10%

Body

70% acc · 16%

75% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

28% acc · 85%

Distance

28% acc · 88%

71% acc · 10%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Ali Bagautinov rounds

Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:04

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:02

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 158

Sig Strikes

43 / 150

28.7%

Sig Str %

30%

72 / 188

Total Strikes

43 / 150

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ali Bagautinov	13 / 38	13 / 38	1 / 1	0
1	Tim Elliott	9 / 39	9 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Ali Bagautinov	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Tim Elliott	13 / 42	37 / 72	1 / 2	1
3	Ali Bagautinov	18 / 75	18 / 75	0 / 2	0
3	Tim Elliott	26 / 77	26 / 77	1 / 1	0

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7