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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Omari Akhmedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1371

Elo1494

Tim BoetschvsOmari AkhmedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsOmari Akhmedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Omari Akhmedov wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Omari Akhmedov at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Omari Akhmedov

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1371

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Boetsch

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

latest

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricOmari Akhmedov

2.93

Strikes / min

2.97

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

57%

Strike defense

55%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

2.58

59%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschOmari Akhmedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.5|Blue +122.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -321.0|Blue +321.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetOmari Akhmedov

By target zone

30% acc · 49%

Head

29% acc · 62%

60% acc · 29%

Body

76% acc · 25%

82% acc · 22%

Leg

88% acc · 13%

By position

38% acc · 78%

Distance

31% acc · 67%

75% acc · 22%

Clinch

77% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Omari Akhmedov rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:02

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 97

Sig Strikes

52 / 135

41.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

64 / 121

Total Strikes

58 / 141

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

3:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Omari Akhmedov	13 / 36	16 / 39	0 / 2
1	Tim Boetsch	9 / 18	18 / 27	0 / 0
2	Omari Akhmedov	19 / 42	21 / 44	0 / 0
2	Tim Boetsch	8 / 28	19 / 40	0 / 1
3	Omari Akhmedov	20 / 57	21 / 58	0 / 0
3	Tim Boetsch	24 / 51	27 / 54	0 / 1

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14