← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1371

Elo1357

Tim BoetschvsJosh SammanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:49

Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Boetsch at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Josh Samman has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tim Boetsch has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tim Boetsch has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Josh Samman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Josh Samman

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1371

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Josh Samman

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Casey · Apr 13

KOvs Eddie Gordon · Dec 14

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jul 15

SUBvs Tamdan McCrory · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricJosh Samman

2.93

Strikes / min

2.08

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.47

57%

Strike defense

34%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

1.09

59%

Takedown defense

33%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschJosh Samman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Josh Samman(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.9|Blue -13.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetJosh Samman

By target zone

61% acc · 74%

Head

30% acc · 41%

82% acc · 24%

Body

45% acc · 29%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

38% acc · 16%

Distance

50% acc · 76%

73% acc · 21%

Clinch

31% acc · 24%

77% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Josh Samman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:15

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 2Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control3:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 58

Sig Strikes

17 / 39

63%

Sig Str %

52.5%

98 / 119

Total Strikes

23 / 47

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:22

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Samman	13 / 33	19 / 41	0 / 3
1	Tim Boetsch	12 / 22	43 / 53	1 / 1
2	Josh Samman	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0
2	Tim Boetsch	26 / 36	55 / 66	1 / 1

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Josh Samman

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5