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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1371

Elo1362

Tim BoetschvsJohny HendricksUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:46

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsJohny Hendricks: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
Tim Boetsch has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Johny Hendricks

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1371

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Johny Hendricks

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 16

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricJohny Hendricks

2.93

Strikes / min

3.49

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.99

57%

Strike defense

53%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.83

59%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschJohny Hendricks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Johny Hendricks(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetJohny Hendricks

By target zone

46% acc · 46%

Head

6% acc · 20%

80% acc · 39%

Body

100% acc · 20%

86% acc · 15%

Leg

86% acc · 60%

By position

56% acc · 73%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

77% acc · 24%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Johny Hendricks rounds

Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:01

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 68

Sig Strikes

10 / 45

61%

Sig Str %

27%

42 / 69

Total Strikes

10 / 45

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johny Hendricks	9 / 42	9 / 42	0 / 0
1	Tim Boetsch	29 / 49	29 / 49	0 / 0
2	Johny Hendricks	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0
2	Tim Boetsch	12 / 19	13 / 20	0 / 0

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19