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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1371

Elo1458

Tim BoetschvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:39

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1371

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricEd Herman

2.93

Strikes / min

3.31

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

57%

Strike defense

42%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

1.96

59%

Takedown defense

59%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -86.6|Blue +86.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetEd Herman

By target zone

32% acc · 59%

Head

49% acc · 66%

71% acc · 19%

Body

70% acc · 15%

86% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

42% acc · 85%

Distance

48% acc · 60%

44% acc · 15%

Clinch

76% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:08

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 64

Sig Strikes

47 / 82

43%

Sig Str %

60%

32 / 69

Total Strikes

56 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ed Herman	29 / 56	34 / 61	0 / 0
1	Tim Boetsch	20 / 49	23 / 52	0 / 0
2	Ed Herman	18 / 26	22 / 30	0 / 0
2	Tim Boetsch	7 / 15	9 / 17	0 / 0

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16