Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Dan Henderson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1371
Tim Boetsch
Elo1491
Dan Henderson

Tim BoetschvsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Dan Henderson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:28

Model Prediction: Dan Henderson wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Dan Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Henderson at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch
Red Corner
VS
Dan Henderson
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1371
Elo
1491
45
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16
L
SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17
W
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18
L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19
latest
Dan Henderson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15
L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15
W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16
L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricDan Henderson
2.93
Strikes / min
2.44
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.45
TDs / 15 min
1.52
59%
Takedown defense
57%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1458Strikes28.6 vs 29.8Takedowns1.2 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.69 vs 0.36Form-0.3 vs -0.6
Tim BoetschDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -119.3|Blue +119.3
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

3
60% acc · 100%
Head
12
80% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
50% acc · 100%
Distance
3
75% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 8%
0
Ground
8
89% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tim Boetsch rounds
0
even
1
Dan Henderson rounds
Round 1Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
12 / 15
50%
Sig Str %
80%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
12 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dan Henderson12 / 1512 / 150 / 00
1Tim Boetsch3 / 63 / 60 / 00

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights20

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11