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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · S-DEC R3

Elo1371

Elo1491

Tim BoetschvsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsCB Dollaway: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Boetsch at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). CB Dollaway has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

CB Dollaway

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1371

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

CB Dollaway

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15

KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15

vs Ed Herman · Jul 17

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18

KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricCB Dollaway

2.93

Strikes / min

2.65

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.55

59%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.0|Blue +120.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

46% acc · 66%

Head

36% acc · 58%

67% acc · 10%

Body

89% acc · 30%

91% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

51% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 72%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

62% acc · 23%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

60% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

CB Dollaway rounds

Round 1CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:57

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 3CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:01

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 76

Sig Strikes

57 / 118

53.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

65 / 108

Total Strikes

84 / 145

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 8

TD %

36.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

3:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CB Dollaway	28 / 59	29 / 60	0 / 0	0
1	Tim Boetsch	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	CB Dollaway	8 / 18	24 / 34	2 / 5	0
2	Tim Boetsch	7 / 14	17 / 28	0 / 0	1
3	CB Dollaway	21 / 41	31 / 51	1 / 3	0
3	Tim Boetsch	16 / 26	30 / 44	0 / 0	2

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14