← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1371

Elo1481

Tim BoetschvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:18

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at -315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brad Tavares has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+285

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-315

(76%)

1371

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricBrad Tavares

2.93

Strikes / min

3.41

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

0.70

59%

Takedown defense

80%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.5|Blue +109.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

43% acc · 71%

Head

35% acc · 71%

80% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 36%

Distance

27% acc · 29%

50% acc · 36%

Clinch

57% acc · 71%

80% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:27

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 2Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns2

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 28

Sig Strikes

24 / 56

49.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

40 / 56

Total Strikes

37 / 70

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

20%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

4:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	16 / 34	24 / 43	0 / 1
1	Tim Boetsch	8 / 14	23 / 31	1 / 5
2	Brad Tavares	8 / 22	13 / 27	0 / 0
2	Tim Boetsch	6 / 14	17 / 25	0 / 0

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28