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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jon Tuck won · U-DEC R3
Elo1352
Tiequan Zhang
Elo1491

Tiequan ZhangvsJon TuckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Jon Tuck won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tiequan Zhang wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Jon Tuck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tiequan Zhang at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tiequan Zhang
Red Corner
VS
Jon Tuck
Blue Corner
+285
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-315
(76%)
1352
Elo
1491
34
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tiequan ZhangL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jason Reinhardt · Feb 11
L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 11
L
KOvs Issei Tamura · Feb 12
latest
Jon Tuck
oldest →
W
SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15
L
vs Josh Emmett · May 16
L
vs Damien Brown · Nov 16
W
SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17
L
vs Drew Dober · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tiequan ZhangMetricJon Tuck
—
Strikes / min
3.00
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
—
Strike defense
60%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.42
—
Takedown defense
50%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes4.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts1.67 vs —Form-0.6 vs 0.0
Tiequan ZhangJon Tuck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Tiequan Zhang(4 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -139.4|Blue +139.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tiequan Zhang

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights1

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9