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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Petersen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Thomas PetersenvsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Thomas Petersen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Thomas Petersen wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Thomas Petersen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thomas Petersen at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thomas Petersen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Thomas Petersen has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).
Don'Tale Mayes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Petersen

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1482

Elo

1482

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas Petersen

oldest →

vs Mohammed Usman · Jul 24

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25

DECvs Guilherme Pat · Apr 26

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26

latest

Don'Tale MayesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas PetersenMetricDon'Tale Mayes

3.10

Strikes / min

3.22

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

54%

Strike defense

46%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

0.59

87%

Takedown defense

46%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas PetersenDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Petersen(7 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas PetersenTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

55% acc · 100%

Head

13% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 4%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

58% acc · 93%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Petersen rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns3

Control4:34

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:27

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns4

Control4:48

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 51

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

44.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

105 / 166

Total Strikes

13 / 23

9 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:49

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Don'Tale Mayes	1 / 5	9 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Thomas Petersen	1 / 3	12 / 19	3 / 3	1
2	Don'Tale Mayes	1 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Thomas Petersen	5 / 19	36 / 69	2 / 2	0
3	Don'Tale Mayes	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Thomas Petersen	22 / 29	57 / 78	4 / 4	0

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10