Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Almeida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1398

Elo1354

Thomas AlmeidavsTim GormanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · Saturday, November 8, 2014Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Thomas Almeida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Gorman wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Thomas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Gorman at +328 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thomas Almeida has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Thomas Almeida has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Almeida

Red Corner

Tim Gorman

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+328

(23%)

1398

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas AlmeidaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Tim Gorman

oldest →

vs Mitch Gagnon · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas AlmeidaMetricTim Gorman

4.84

Strikes / min

2.73

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

61%

Strike defense

46%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

1.00

75%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap-2.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas AlmeidaTim Gorman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Almeida(10 fights)Tim Gorman(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.0|Blue -44.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas AlmeidaTargetTim Gorman

By target zone

46% acc · 66%

Head

35% acc · 94%

86% acc · 21%

Body

25% acc · 1%

89% acc · 13%

Leg

60% acc · 4%

By position

102

55% acc · 85%

Distance

34% acc · 96%

60% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Almeida rounds

even

Tim Gorman rounds

Round 1Tim Gorman edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:01

25Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 217

Sig Strikes

67 / 189

54.3%

Sig Str %

37%

122 / 219

Total Strikes

71 / 195

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 11

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Gorman	25 / 48	29 / 54	2 / 6
1	Thomas Almeida	32 / 65	32 / 65	0 / 0
2	Tim Gorman	18 / 64	18 / 64	0 / 3
2	Thomas Almeida	43 / 73	44 / 74	0 / 0
3	Tim Gorman	24 / 77	24 / 77	0 / 2
3	Thomas Almeida	45 / 79	46 / 80	0 / 0

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Tim Gorman

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2