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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rob Font won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1398

Elo1490

Thomas AlmeidavsRob FontUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Rob Font won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:24

Style matchupThomas Almeida: Pressure fightervsRob Font: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Rob Font wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Rob Font wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rob Font at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rob Font is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thomas Almeida has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Thomas Almeida has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Almeida

Red Corner

Rob Font

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1398

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas AlmeidaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · May 16

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 25

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas AlmeidaMetricRob Font

4.84

Strikes / min

5.11

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

61%

Strike defense

57%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

0.70

75%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+1.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas AlmeidaRob Font

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Almeida(10 fights)Rob Font(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.3|Blue +92.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas AlmeidaTargetRob Font

By target zone

17% acc · 46%

Head

29% acc · 85%

25% acc · 8%

Body

44% acc · 10%

69% acc · 46%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

23% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

73% acc · 27%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Almeida rounds

even

Rob Font rounds

Round 1Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 90

Sig Strikes

41 / 132

28.5%

Sig Str %

32.5%

24 / 92

Total Strikes

48 / 139

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rob Font	18 / 79	23 / 84	0 / 1
1	Thomas Almeida	15 / 64	15 / 65	0 / 0
2	Rob Font	23 / 53	25 / 55	1 / 2
2	Thomas Almeida	9 / 26	9 / 27	0 / 0

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21