Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · U-DEC

Elo1398

Elo1504

Thomas AlmeidavsJonathan MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, October 17, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

U-DEC

Style matchupThomas Almeida: Pressure fightervsJonathan Martinez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Almeida

Red Corner

Jonathan Martinez

Blue Corner

-139

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1398

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas AlmeidaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · May 16

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas AlmeidaMetricJonathan Martinez

4.84

Strikes / min

4.44

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

61%

Strike defense

56%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

0.38

75%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas AlmeidaJonathan Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Almeida(10 fights)Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.3|Blue +106.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +924.0|Blue -924.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas AlmeidaTargetJonathan Martinez

By target zone

26% acc · 52%

Head

31% acc · 73%

59% acc · 27%

Body

55% acc · 25%

93% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

34% acc · 88%

Distance

34% acc · 95%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Almeida rounds

even

Jonathan Martinez rounds

Round 1Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:02

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 171

Sig Strikes

73 / 205

36.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

64 / 171

Total Strikes

73 / 205

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Martinez	21 / 72	21 / 72	0 / 0
1	Thomas Almeida	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	24 / 68	24 / 68	0 / 0
2	Thomas Almeida	18 / 53	18 / 53	0 / 2
3	Jonathan Martinez	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 0
3	Thomas Almeida	31 / 78	31 / 78	0 / 3

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15