Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Almeida won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1398

Elo1399

Thomas AlmeidavsAnthony BirchakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thomas Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:24

Style matchupThomas Almeida: Pressure fightervsAnthony Birchak: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Thomas Almeida wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Thomas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thomas Almeida at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thomas Almeida is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Anthony Birchak is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thomas Almeida has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Almeida

Red Corner

Anthony Birchak

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+415

(19%)

1398

Elo

1399

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas AlmeidaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Anthony BirchakL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14

KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15

vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16

SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas AlmeidaMetricAnthony Birchak

4.84

Strikes / min

3.93

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

61%

Strike defense

56%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

0.48

75%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas AlmeidaAnthony Birchak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Almeida(10 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +3.8|Blue -3.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas AlmeidaTargetAnthony Birchak

By target zone

43% acc · 79%

Head

23% acc · 59%

80% acc · 17%

Body

30% acc · 11%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

80% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 75%

Distance

29% acc · 89%

86% acc · 25%

Clinch

43% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Almeida rounds

even

Anthony Birchak rounds

Round 1Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 50

Sig Strikes

27 / 91

48%

Sig Str %

29%

26 / 52

Total Strikes

27 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Birchak	27 / 91	27 / 91	0 / 5	0
1	Thomas Almeida	24 / 50	26 / 52	0 / 0	0

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6