Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Almeida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1398

Elo1364

Thomas AlmeidavsAlbert MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thomas Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:37

Style matchupThomas Almeida: Pressure fightervsAlbert Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Thomas Almeida wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Thomas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thomas Almeida at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Albert Morales enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thomas Almeida

Red Corner

Albert Morales

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1398

Elo

1364

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thomas AlmeidaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · May 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Albert MoralesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Soukhamthath · Mar 17

vs Brett Johns · Jul 17

vs Benito Lopez · Dec 17

SUBvs Manny Bermudez · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thomas AlmeidaMetricAlbert Morales

4.84

Strikes / min

3.81

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.96

61%

Strike defense

56%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

0.91

75%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thomas AlmeidaAlbert Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thomas Almeida(10 fights)Albert Morales(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.7|Blue -33.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -46.2|Blue +46.2

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thomas AlmeidaTargetAlbert Morales

By target zone

47% acc · 73%

Head

20% acc · 72%

71% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 11%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

43% acc · 17%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thomas Almeida rounds

even

Albert Morales rounds

Round 1Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:06

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 79

Sig Strikes

18 / 74

55%

Sig Str %

20%

42 / 80

Total Strikes

18 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Albert Morales	16 / 60	16 / 60	1 / 2
1	Thomas Almeida	25 / 54	26 / 55	0 / 0
2	Albert Morales	2 / 14	2 / 14	0 / 0
2	Thomas Almeida	16 / 25	16 / 25	0 / 0

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Albert Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5