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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · U-DEC R3

Elo1368

Elo1510

Thibault GoutivsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThibault Gouti: Well-roundedvsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thibault Gouti

Red Corner

Nasrat Haqparast

Blue Corner

+600

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-750

(88%)

1368

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thibault Gouti

oldest →

SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Jun 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16

KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17

vs Sage Northcutt · Feb 18

latest

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thibault GoutiMetricNasrat Haqparast

3.68

Strikes / min

6.36

5.64

Strikes absorbed / min

6.00

50%

Strike defense

63%

1.23

TDs / 15 min

0.34

83%

Takedown defense

86%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.96Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thibault GoutiNasrat Haqparast

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thibault Gouti(6 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.6|Blue +141.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thibault GoutiTargetNasrat Haqparast

By target zone

22% acc · 72%

Head

45% acc · 79%

61% acc · 18%

Body

65% acc · 16%

89% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 5%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 68%

Clinch

63% acc · 12%

Ground

49% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thibault Gouti rounds

even

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

Round 1Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Thibault Gouti edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 284

Sig Strikes

124 / 256

26%

Sig Str %

47.3%

95 / 306

Total Strikes

148 / 282

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nasrat Haqparast	30 / 73	30 / 73	0 / 0
1	Thibault Gouti	25 / 95	25 / 95	0 / 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	37 / 78	38 / 79	0 / 0
2	Thibault Gouti	40 / 131	40 / 131	0 / 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	57 / 105	80 / 130	0 / 1
3	Thibault Gouti	13 / 58	30 / 80	0 / 0

Thibault Gouti

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15