Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thibault Gouti won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1368

Elo1362

Thibault GoutivsAndrew HolbrookUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Saturday, September 2, 2017Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Thibault Gouti won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:28

Style matchupThibault Gouti: Well-roundedvsAndrew Holbrook: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Andrew Holbrook wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Thibault Gouti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Holbrook at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thibault Gouti enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Thibault Gouti is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Andrew Holbrook has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Thibault Gouti has 73pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andrew Holbrook (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thibault Gouti

Red Corner

Andrew Holbrook

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1368

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thibault GoutiL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Jun 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16

vs Sage Northcutt · Feb 18

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18

latest

Andrew Holbrook

oldest →

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jul 15

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jul 16

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 16

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thibault GoutiMetricAndrew Holbrook

3.68

Strikes / min

2.20

5.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

50%

Strike defense

54%

1.23

TDs / 15 min

0.85

83%

Takedown defense

10%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.96Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thibault GoutiAndrew Holbrook

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thibault Gouti(6 fights)Andrew Holbrook(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.7|Blue -6.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thibault GoutiTargetAndrew Holbrook

By target zone

48% acc · 90%

Head

36% acc · 64%

50% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 27%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

67% acc · 9%

By position

44% acc · 59%

Distance

39% acc · 86%

54% acc · 32%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thibault Gouti rounds

even

Andrew Holbrook rounds

Round 1Thibault Gouti edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 86

Sig Strikes

22 / 54

47%

Sig Str %

40%

43 / 88

Total Strikes

22 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Holbrook	22 / 54	22 / 54	0 / 6	0
1	Thibault Gouti	41 / 86	43 / 88	0 / 0	0

Thibault Gouti

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Andrew Holbrook

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5