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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Tavares won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1351

Thiago TavaresvsSpencer FisherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:51

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsSpencer Fisher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thiago Tavares wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Tavares at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Spencer Fisher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Spencer Fisher

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1491

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Spencer FisherL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 10

vs Curt Warburton · Oct 10

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 11

vs Sam Stout · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricSpencer Fisher

2.00

Strikes / min

3.17

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

62%

Strike defense

64%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.67

62%

Takedown defense

60%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresSpencer Fisher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Spencer Fisher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetSpencer Fisher

By target zone

33% acc · 80%

Head

14% acc · 33%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

40% acc · 40%

Distance

25% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

38% acc · 60%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Spencer Fisher rounds

Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control3:59

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:42

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 26

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

37.5%

Sig Str %

18.5%

109 / 140

Total Strikes

34 / 42

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

45%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:41

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Spencer Fisher	3 / 8	26 / 32	0 / 0
1	Thiago Tavares	3 / 8	42 / 51	2 / 5
2	Spencer Fisher	0 / 1	8 / 10	0 / 0
2	Thiago Tavares	7 / 18	67 / 89	1 / 2

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Spencer Fisher

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5