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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Shane Roller won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1490

Thiago TavaresvsShane RollerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Shane Roller won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:28

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsShane Roller: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Thiago Tavares wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Shane Roller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Tavares at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Roller is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thiago Tavares has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Shane Roller has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Thiago Tavares has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Shane Roller

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Shane Roller

oldest →

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11

SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11

vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12

vs John Alessio · Jul 12

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricShane Roller

2.00

Strikes / min

2.04

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

62%

Strike defense

60%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

2.46

62%

Takedown defense

42%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresShane Roller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetShane Roller

By target zone

24% acc · 59%

Head

16% acc · 50%

46% acc · 27%

Body

31% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

82% acc · 35%

By position

31% acc · 95%

Distance

22% acc · 88%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Shane Roller rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:07

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Shane Roller edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:21

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 70

Sig Strikes

26 / 106

35%

Sig Str %

28.5%

23 / 71

Total Strikes

26 / 106

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Roller	18 / 84	18 / 84	0 / 1
1	Thiago Tavares	20 / 65	21 / 66	0 / 0
2	Shane Roller	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0
2	Thiago Tavares	2 / 5	2 / 5	1 / 1

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6