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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1355

Thiago TavaresvsSam StoutUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsSam Stout: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Stout has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Sam Stout

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricSam Stout

2.00

Strikes / min

4.17

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

62%

Strike defense

57%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.63

62%

Takedown defense

77%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresSam Stout

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Sam Stout(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.4|Blue -135.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetSam Stout

By target zone

24% acc · 44%

Head

13% acc · 40%

80% acc · 48%

Body

81% acc · 49%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

63% acc · 11%

By position

39% acc · 98%

Distance

24% acc · 89%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Sam Stout rounds

Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:08

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:08

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 128

Sig Strikes

45 / 172

40.7%

Sig Str %

25.3%

57 / 136

Total Strikes

52 / 179

2 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:22

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Stout	7 / 27	11 / 31	0 / 0
1	Thiago Tavares	9 / 19	16 / 27	2 / 6
2	Sam Stout	16 / 62	16 / 62	0 / 0
2	Thiago Tavares	18 / 56	18 / 56	0 / 3
3	Sam Stout	22 / 83	25 / 86	0 / 0
3	Thiago Tavares	23 / 53	23 / 53	0 / 2

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12