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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1354

Thiago TavaresvsRobert PeraltaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsRobert Peralta: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robert Peralta wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Peralta at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Peralta is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thiago Tavares has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Robert Peralta has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Robert Peralta

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1491

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Robert Peralta

oldest →

KOvs Jason Young · Sep 12

vs Akira Corassani · Apr 13

KOvs Estevan Payan · Dec 13

vs Rony Jason · May 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricRobert Peralta

2.00

Strikes / min

3.76

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

62%

Strike defense

53%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.59

62%

Takedown defense

65%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresRobert Peralta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Robert Peralta(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.1|Blue -136.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetRobert Peralta

By target zone

58% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

62% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Robert Peralta rounds

Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:53

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 31

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

58%

Sig Str %

45 / 63

Total Strikes

3 / 5

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robert Peralta	0 / 2	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Tavares	18 / 31	45 / 63	2 / 3	1

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Robert Peralta

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7