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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Thiago Tavares
Elo1351
Pat Audinwood

Thiago TavaresvsPat AudinwoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:47

Model Prediction: Thiago Tavares wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Tavares at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Pat Audinwood has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Thiago Tavares has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Thiago Tavares has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Pat Audinwood has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Pat Audinwood
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1491
Elo
1351
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
188 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares
oldest →
W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13
W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14
L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15
W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16
latest
Pat Audinwood
oldest →
L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricPat Audinwood
2.00
Strikes / min
1.17
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.31
62%
Strike defense
41%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
0.80
62%
Takedown defense
0%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.31Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-3.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes21.3 vs —Takedowns2.9 vs —Sub Atts1.50 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Thiago TavaresPat Audinwood

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Pat Audinwood(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.7|Blue -139.7
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetPat Audinwood

By target zone

5
56% acc · 71%
Head
1
17% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 29%
Body
2
100% acc · 67%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 14%
Distance
3
38% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
6
75% acc · 86%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Thiago Tavares rounds
0
even
0
Pat Audinwood rounds
Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:58
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 11
Sig Strikes
3 / 8
63%
Sig Str %
37%
50 / 63
Total Strikes
6 / 13
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:58
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pat Audinwood3 / 86 / 130 / 00
1Thiago Tavares7 / 1150 / 632 / 21

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Pat Audinwood

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2