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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1493

Thiago TavaresvsKhabib NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:55

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov

2.00

Strikes / min

4.10

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

62%

Strike defense

65%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

5.32

62%

Takedown defense

84%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresKhabib Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov

By target zone

0% acc

Head

76% acc · 100%

50% acc · 50%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 23%

Clinch

Ground

89% acc · 77%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 10

Sig Strikes

22 / 31

20%

Sig Str %

70%

2 / 10

Total Strikes

22 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	22 / 31	22 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Tavares	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 0	0

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13