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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1356

Thiago TavaresvsJustin SalasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsJustin Salas: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Justin Salas wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Salas at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Tavares has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Justin Salas

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1491

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Justin SalasL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Jun 12

vs Aaron Riley · Jul 13

KOvs Ben Wall · May 14

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14

KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricJustin Salas

2.00

Strikes / min

3.42

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

62%

Strike defense

68%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

2.43

62%

Takedown defense

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresJustin Salas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.1|Blue -134.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetJustin Salas

By target zone

50% acc · 57%

Head

25% acc · 75%

100% acc · 43%

Body

0% acc

Leg

25% acc · 25%

By position

56% acc · 71%

Distance

9% acc · 25%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Ground

60% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Justin Salas rounds

Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:17

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

4 / 17

63%

Sig Str %

23%

20 / 24

Total Strikes

14 / 27

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Salas	4 / 17	14 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Tavares	7 / 11	20 / 24	1 / 1	1

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7