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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1489

Thiago TavaresvsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Thiago Tavares wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Tavares at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Tavares has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Tavares

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1491

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Tavares

oldest →

KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago TavaresMetricBrian Ortega

2.00

Strikes / min

3.84

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

62%

Strike defense

49%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.93

62%

Takedown defense

54%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.31Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago TavaresBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago TavaresTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

38% acc · 85%

Head

40% acc · 95%

100% acc · 5%

Body

33% acc · 2%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

34% acc · 67%

Distance

31% acc · 54%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

71% acc · 12%

71% acc · 31%

Ground

64% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Tavares rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Thiago Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control4:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 94

Sig Strikes

41 / 101

43%

Sig Str %

36.7%

114 / 177

Total Strikes

56 / 117

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

58.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:22

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	5 / 17	14 / 27	0 / 0	1
1	Thiago Tavares	10 / 25	36 / 54	3 / 3	0
2	Brian Ortega	5 / 13	9 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Thiago Tavares	9 / 18	57 / 71	3 / 4	0
3	Brian Ortega	31 / 71	33 / 73	0 / 0	0
3	Thiago Tavares	20 / 51	21 / 52	0 / 4	0

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13