Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Thiago SilvavsMatt HamillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Silva: Elusive strikervsMatt Hamill: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Thiago Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hamill at +340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Hamill has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Silva

Red Corner

Matt Hamill

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Silva

oldest →

vs Alexander Gustafsson · Apr 12

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Jun 13

latest

Matt Hamill

oldest →

vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10

vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10

DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11

vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SilvaMetricMatt Hamill

3.92

Strikes / min

3.69

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

67%

Strike defense

61%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

3.00

70%

Takedown defense

91%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SilvaMatt Hamill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Silva(3 fights)Matt Hamill(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SilvaTargetMatt Hamill

By target zone

34% acc · 50%

Head

26% acc · 53%

67% acc · 13%

Body

89% acc · 11%

77% acc · 38%

Leg

81% acc · 36%

By position

45% acc · 84%

Distance

38% acc · 96%

59% acc · 10%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

56% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Silva rounds

even

Matt Hamill rounds

Round 1Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Thiago Silva edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns1

30Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:39Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Thiago Silva edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:26

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 205

Sig Strikes

70 / 181

46.7%

Sig Str %

38%

108 / 217

Total Strikes

74 / 186

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 14

—

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Hamill	29 / 83	29 / 83	1 / 2
1	Thiago Silva	27 / 73	27 / 73	0 / 0
2	Matt Hamill	30 / 69	34 / 74	2 / 5
2	Thiago Silva	33 / 69	38 / 74	0 / 0
3	Matt Hamill	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 7
3	Thiago Silva	36 / 63	43 / 70	0 / 0

Thiago Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Matt Hamill

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6