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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1432
Thiago Santos
Elo1491
Steve Bosse

Thiago SantosvsSteve BosseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:29

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsSteve Bosse: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Steve Bosse has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Thiago Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos
Red Corner
VS
Steve Bosse
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1432
Elo
1491
42
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20
L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21
W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22
L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22
latest
Steve BosseW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs James Te Huna · Mar 16
W
vs Sean O'Connell · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricSteve Bosse
3.72
Strikes / min
5.99
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
5.38
53%
Strike defense
50%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
0.92
65%
Takedown defense
100%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.15evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1500Strikes17.8 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Thiago SantosSteve Bosse

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Steve Bosse(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -58.3|Blue +58.3
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetSteve Bosse

By target zone

1
50% acc · 33%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
75% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Thiago Santos rounds
0
even
0
Steve Bosse rounds
Round 1Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 4
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
75%
Sig Str %
0%
3 / 4
Total Strikes
0 / 1
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Steve Bosse0 / 10 / 10 / 00
1Thiago Santos3 / 43 / 40 / 00

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24

Steve Bosse

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3