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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1432

Elo1363

Thiago SantosvsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1432

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricNate Marquardt

3.72

Strikes / min

2.71

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.87

65%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.7|Blue -69.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +9.0|Blue -9.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

33% acc · 38%

Head

14% acc · 14%

86% acc · 38%

Body

80% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 86%

By position

48% acc · 75%

Distance

55% acc · 86%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

100% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 30

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

53%

Sig Str %

53%

20 / 35

Total Strikes

7 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Marquardt	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Thiago Santos	16 / 30	20 / 35	0 / 0	0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14