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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev won · U-DEC R5

Elo1432

Elo1538

Thiago SantosvsMagomed AnkalaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -630 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Magomed Ankalaev has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

Blue Corner

+450

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-630

(86%)

1432

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago Santos

oldest →

vs Jon Jones · Jul 19

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricMagomed Ankalaev

3.72

Strikes / min

3.65

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.79

65%

Takedown defense

87%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosMagomed Ankalaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.7|Blue +105.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetMagomed Ankalaev

By target zone

19% acc · 23%

Head

35% acc · 42%

62% acc · 27%

Body

69% acc · 45%

81% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

42% acc · 95%

Distance

46% acc · 82%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

92% acc · 15%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 5Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 138

Sig Strikes

78 / 155

43%

Sig Str %

51%

81 / 160

Total Strikes

114 / 191

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Ankalaev	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0
1	Thiago Santos	10 / 21	10 / 21	0 / 0
2	Magomed Ankalaev	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0
2	Thiago Santos	15 / 36	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Magomed Ankalaev	19 / 31	19 / 31	0 / 0
3	Thiago Santos	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0
4	Thiago Santos	10 / 32	16 / 38	0 / 0
4	Magomed Ankalaev	21 / 48	36 / 63	1 / 1
5	Magomed Ankalaev	15 / 21	36 / 42	0 / 1
5	Thiago Santos	7 / 19	19 / 32	0 / 0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16