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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1432

Elo1510

Thiago SantosvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Saturday, August 4, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(76.1%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1432

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricKevin Holland

3.72

Strikes / min

4.24

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

53%

Strike defense

50%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.79

65%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.6|Blue +77.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

38% acc · 72%

Head

49% acc · 65%

82% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 19%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

45% acc · 29%

Distance

44% acc · 55%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

45% acc · 68%

Ground

87% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control3:46

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:05

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control3:49

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 153

Sig Strikes

31 / 55

46.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

81 / 167

Total Strikes

81 / 110

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

46.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:40

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	7 / 19	21 / 37	0 / 0	1
1	Thiago Santos	30 / 74	37 / 83	0 / 1	0
2	Kevin Holland	20 / 28	42 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Thiago Santos	14 / 28	14 / 28	2 / 5	0
3	Kevin Holland	4 / 8	18 / 23	0 / 1	0
3	Thiago Santos	25 / 51	30 / 56	1 / 1	1

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27