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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · U-DEC R5

Elo1432

Elo1495

Thiago SantosvsJohnny WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsJohnny Walker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Johnny Walker has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Johnny Walker has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thiago Santos

Red Corner

Johnny Walker

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1432

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'6"

193.04 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thiago SantosL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jon Jones · Jul 19

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Johnny Walker

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · May 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thiago SantosMetricJohnny Walker

3.72

Strikes / min

3.90

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

53%

Strike defense

46%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.36

65%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.15evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thiago SantosJohnny Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thiago Santos(10 fights)Johnny Walker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.4|Blue +62.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thiago SantosTargetJohnny Walker

By target zone

23% acc · 20%

Head

13% acc · 15%

57% acc · 36%

Body

45% acc · 19%

51% acc · 43%

Leg

58% acc · 67%

By position

41% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 96%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thiago Santos rounds

even

Johnny Walker rounds

Round 1Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 105

Sig Strikes

48 / 130

40%

Sig Str %

40.6%

44 / 105

Total Strikes

48 / 130

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johnny Walker	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0
1	Thiago Santos	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0
2	Johnny Walker	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Thiago Santos	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 1
3	Johnny Walker	10 / 25	10 / 25	0 / 0
3	Thiago Santos	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 0
4	Thiago Santos	9 / 22	9 / 22	0 / 0
4	Johnny Walker	11 / 41	11 / 41	0 / 0
5	Johnny Walker	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 0
5	Thiago Santos	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 0

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14